UFC on FOX 27 Odds: Souza vs. Brunson 2 Prediction

The next UFC event — UFC on Fox 27 — goes down this Saturday (Jan. 27th) and features a main-event tip between Ronaldo”Jacare” Souza and Derek Brunson. This is the second time these two middleweights will face off, with Souza winning via knockout in their first go around in 2012. But time is a funny thing, and six decades later, it is Brunson riding the tide of momentum while Souza regroups after a catastrophic loss that cost him a shot at the UFC middleweight title.
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While this isn’t the tastiest primary course the UFC has ever served, it is a captivating contrast in styles, and every MMA event, whatever the hype, produces possible betting opportunities. Where is the smart money going for Souza vs Brunson 2?
Stay tuned for a broader look at the card at Best Bets for UFC on Fox 27 that Thursday.
Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (-160) vs. Derek Brunson (+135)
Jacare Souza fighting in Strikeforce.
Jacare Souza combating in Strikeforce. Photo by LowLight (YouTube) [CC License].
This is your classic battle of styles. Ronaldo Souza (24-5, 17 submissions) is one of the very best jiu-jitsu professionals to ever step foot into a UFC Octagon while Derek Brunson (18-5, 10 KOs) loves to put people to sleep with his strong fists.
Initially these two combatants met was back in 2012 under the aged Strikeforce banner, and it was actually Souza who was able to put Brunson to sleep with a quick right hook, one of three career knockouts for the Brazilian.
Through GIPHY
Six years later, Brunson, a former Division II All-American wrestler (and cheerleader!) , has a chance for revenge.
His opponent is one of the most feared grapplers on the planet and has ended 58-percent of his fights via submission. As he revealed in the first matchup, he’s not too shabby in casting leather either. He lands a decent 2.28 significant strikes every minute and has a spectacular accuracy of 44.1-percent.
Souza suffered a catastrophic loss to Robert Whittaker through head kick in his final struggle (April 2017), but he’s also won 10 of his final 12 and has never lost back-to-back conflicts in his career. A win on Saturday would put Souza’s title back to middleweight title picture, and time is of the essence for its 38-year-old.
In 34, Derek Brunson’s own career clock is now getting late. He rebounded from back-to-back losses to Whittaker and Anderson Silva with KO wins over Dan Kelly (June 2017) and Lyoto Machida (October 2017), rising up the middleweight positions in the process. Knocking men out is not anything new for the hard-hitting middleweight, who averages 3.2 significant strikes per minute using a striking accuracy of 32.1-percent. He has won 61-percent of his struggles via KO and has generated knockouts in each of his last six successes. Interestingly, he’s never been filed in his professional career.
The contrasting styles make this a tremendously interesting fight for MMA purists. Normally, it’s smart to lean towards the high-level grappler over the power puncher, but Souza’s age coupled with his very last performance suggest a possible Brunson upset. Look for the American to utilize his speed, power, and five-inch achieve advantage (77??? vs 72???) to attempt to end things early, while utilizing his wrestling to keep the fight standing.
At the moment, Brunson is recorded at +135 on MyBookie.ag. It is a fantastic value bet worth taking now.

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