NASCAR at Richmond odds, picks 2019: Model says Kyle Larson surprises at Toyota Owners 400

For the first time this year, NASCAR will be under the lights when the 2019 Toyota Owners 400 gets underway at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday at Richmond Raceway. Kyle Busch enters 2019 NASCAR in Richmond as the leader at the NASCAR Dragon Energy Cup standings with 361 points. He is looking for his fourth win of the year and the 2019 Toyota Owners 400 chances provide him a 9-4 opportunity to get it starts in fifth place after qualifying. Kevin Harvick had the quickest pace in qualifying at 124.29 MPH, giving him the pole position. His NASCAR in Richmond odds have moved from 7-1 to 9-2. Martin Truex Jr. (6-1), Joey Logano (8-1) and Brad Keselowski (10-1) are one of the other leading contenders at this .75-mile brief course. Before locking in any 2019 Toyota Owners 400 picks of your own, first be sure to check out the NASCAR predictions in the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Produced by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive information engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track record and current results into account.

The version is off to a solid start in NASCAR this year, calling Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four contender from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top . It also nailed Busch’s enormous win at Bristol last week. Anyone who has followed its selections is far up.

McClure, with a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at iconic places like Richmond Raceway have been in his bloodstream. Now, his model mimicked the 2019 Toyota Owners 400 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For NASCAR in Richmond 2019, we could inform you that the model is high on Kyle Larson, who makes a strong run at taking the checkered flag despite going off at 25-1 NASCAR at Richmond chances.

Larson’s average finish at Richmond is 9.7, which is that the third-best among active drivers. He has finished seventh or better in four of his last five events in Richmond and won the Richmond autumn race at 2017. He will start in 14th place after a slightly slower than expected qualifying period of 123.54 MPH. But he posted the fastest lap (121.70 MPH) at the first practice session on Friday, so he has shown the rate required to climb the NASCAR in Richmond leaderboard on Saturday evening.

And a massive shocker: Truex Jr., one of the top Vegas favorites in 6-1, does not crack the top five. There are far better values in a wealthy 2019 NASCAR in Richmond lineup.

The 39-year-old veteran is sitting in the standings, but he’s tapered off lately. Truex finished 12th at Texas Motor Speedway and then struggled last week in Bristol, ending 17th. In his career, Truex hasn’t fared well at Richmond Raceway either. In fact, he’s finished in the top five only 3 times in 26 career starts at the track.

The version is also targeting two additional motorists with 2019 Toyota Owners 400 odds of 20-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these long shots can hit it big.

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