NASCAR at Bristol odds, picks 2019: Model says Kurt Busch surprises at Food City 500

The 2019 Food City 500 occurs on Sunday at mythical Bristol Motor Speedway. The green flag falls at 2 p.m. ET, and every corner counts due to the tight, steeply-banked track where passing is at a premium. Last week, Denny Hamlin grabbed his next victory of this 2019 Dragon Energy NASCAR Cup Series season at Texas Motor Speedway. He has a win at Bristol under his belt and can be recorded at 14-1 to win in the latest 2019 Food City 500 chances. But, there are six drivers with 2019 NASCAR in Bristol odds better than Hamlin, as Kyle Busch (5-2) is the preferred followed by Kyle Larson (7-1), Brad Keselowski (8-1), Joey Logano (8-1), Ryan Blaney (12-1) and Kevin Harvick (12-1). So before you make your 2019 Food City 500 picks, visit the NASCAR at Bristol predictions from the proven computer version at SportsLine.

Produced by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive information scientist Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors like track record and recent results into consideration.

The version is off to a solid start in NASCAR this year, calling Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin that a top-four contender from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included placing winner Joey Logano at its projected top five. It was also all over Kyle Busch as a leading contender in the TicketGuardian 500 and four of the drivers at McClure’s top five went on to top-five finishes at the Auto Club 400. Anyone who has followed its picks is way up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at iconic venues like Bristol Motor Speedway are in his blood. His model simulated the 2019 Food City 500 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For Sunday, we can tell you the model is high on Kurt Busch, making a strong run at the checkered flag despite heading off as a long shot 14-1 NASCAR at Bristol chances.

Busch is a six-time winner at Bristol Motor Speedway and only his brother, Kyle Busch (seven), has more wins at this track among active NASCAR drivers. That includes a victory last August at the NASCAR in Bristol race for his 30th career success in NASCAR’s top series.

The 40-year-old veteran and 2004 series champion battled his way to the front of the pack from the starting position in that race also has also previously come in the 27th and 13th starting positions to succeed at Bristol. He conquer Larson by 0.367 seconds last time NASCAR seen Bristol and certainly will again start 27th on Sunday. He’s off to a hot start this year also, finishing in the top 10 in all but two races. He finished second in the Clash in Daytona and third at Atlanta.

Along with a huge shocker: Ryan Blaney, among the best Vegas favorites in 12-1, doesn’t even crack the top five. There are far better worth compared to 12-1 premium he is controlling.

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