BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+8 DRAFTKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card in Florida. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to acquire a great deal of money from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first location price and that $175k will be distributed between all 100 entries that match. I will attempt to receive my 2nd chair this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I’ll probably stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw 50-100 entries at the $25k prize, and then I will probably have a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a fantastic amount of drama into money games.
With that said, let us get into a couple plays I like this week Together with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Roosevelt Roberts — $9,500
I expect Roberts to be the much better fighter everywhere this battle goes. I believe Gifford’s best shot at a win will be gearing up a guillotine. Other than that, I think we’ve got a fairly safe win here with Roberts and that’s precisely what I am looking for. I want the safer wins in cash and I can be concerned about who’s going to score the greatest in GPPs. I think we could eliminate him in the GPPs at his price because if he puts up 90 DK points in a win then won’t win $25k. It helps us win in cash games though and I’d be surprised if he had a low scoring win here. I think he is good for 80-100 points here and I’m totally ok with that in my money lineup.
GPP drama of the week — Greg Hardy- $9,300
Hardy is my GPP play of the week and he has the greatest ITD odds on the card at -222. This is a set up struggle for him to get a knockout and I think that is most likely going to happen in the first round. That should place Hardy over 100 points and I am interested in that. Hardy is going to be among my top plays of this week, but he’s GPP just for me personally. We can’t trust him enough for money games, so that’s the reason why I like Roberts longer in that arrangement. I do think Hardy can outscore Roberts even though they win, and he is $200 cheaper. That could knock Roberts off the top lineup and in spite of higher ownership we can win that $25k with Hardy in our lineup so long as he gets the early KO. Hardy wins in round 1 is lined at -130 and that’s too good for me to pass in GPPs.
Underdog play of the week — Glover Teixeira — $7,900
Teixeira is no more the underdog on the gambling line (-120) but DraftKings salaries do not change as soon as they’re released. We get Teixeira here for $400 cheaper than Cutelaba and he is favored to get the win. I also think he can win in the 1st round with a submission and score over 90 points. That would give him a good shot at being to the perfect lineup. I will be targeting both sides of this fight in GPPs because I don’t expect it to go all 3 rounds, but that value on Teixeira is what I enjoy the most and we have to own”underdogs” within our DK lineups with the $50k salary cap. I believe the obvious path to victory for Glover is on the floor and that’s what I anticipate his game must be. I like him to find a entry win if he can land takedowns and he will be among my greatest possessed underdogs this week.
Fade of the week — Carla Esparza ($8,200)
I know people were expecting me to put Angela Hill as my fade at $9.4k. She’s a solid fade too… However, I am going with Esparza as my fade this week and that I have zero lineups such as her. In general, Esparza is a good wrestler and we enjoy wrestlers in DraftKings. I simply don’t see wrestling being in her very best interest against Jandiroba and that I believe she uses her wrestling at shield to attempt and keep this fight on the feet. Each of the danger is on the floor in this matchup and Carla gets the better boxing of the two. I think she could win a 30-27 striking decision but that won’t score highly, and I would guess it puts up around ~60 DK points. That is not going to reduce it at $8.2k so that I just don’t see the way she ends up on the $25k lineup this week if she does win, and that’s why she is my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link too. I am 69-44 for +224.83un (+$22,483) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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